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Monday, May 31, 2010

Food For Thought: 2009-2050 GDP Forecast by Country - Watch Them Go!

We came across the following chart a few weeks back on BusinessInsider.com in a post titled Beautiful Chart On The End Of The Age Of Europe. We found the display worthwhile and thought provoking. The BusinessInsider.com post makes the following points:
  • "Europe is embroiled in a sovereign debt crisis, but it is just the start of a downward trend for the continent, if this GDP chart is to be believed.
  • This beautiful chart from Spanish economics blog Venturatis, makes it clear that European nations are falling behind in the GDP competition, and sure to fall behind more over the next 40 years if they can't stick together and make the European Union a growth titan.
  • Notably, the United States remains a massive growth market throughout the next 40 years."
Clicking through to the Spanish blog, we see that the analysis is based on "information from Wikipedia (based on the CIA, Goldman Sachs and the International Monetary Fund)" as well as a handful of estimates by the author. AND, here's the chart (click to enlarge):

As noted in our prior posts, we believe forecasts and "experts" are often innaccurate, yet at least a few valid reasons exist to support a long-term economic shift toward emerging markets:
  • ongoing deregulation/liberalization,
  • more stable governments,
  • increased free trade and resulting stronger trading relationships,
  • increased capital mobility, and
  • globalization of corporations
Of course, all of this is occurring in regions with large, growing populations.

The United States, as a major global trading partner, should benefit by providing goods and services to the emerging giants (hence, the forecast of a still prominent USA in 2014 and 2050). We think Europe will remain in the picture, too, and -- as the Spanish author notes:
  • "los cambios son siempre una fuente de oportunidades"
Changes are always a fountain of opportunities. Perhaps current struggles will serve as a wake-up call and Europe will surprise us. Time will tell.

Happy investing,

Jeffrey Walkenhorst
CommonStock$ense

Disclosure: n/a.

© 2010 Jeffrey Walkenhorst
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1 comment:

  1. Jeffrey,

    I am very impressed with your blog and share a similar investing style. I have particular interest in your thoughts on AOB as I am also a shareholder. I would like to discuss AOB with you real time and exchange some insights. I can be reached at srombach@rombachcapital.com.

    Warm Regards,

    Scott

    ReplyDelete

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