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Monday, April 26, 2010

Sonic Foundry - Moment of Truth this Week; Plus "Online" Autodesk University Reaches 90K Persons = Impressive

Sonic Foundry (SOFO, $7.60) is expected to report March quarter results on Thursday afternoon. We're looking for confirmation that our Mediasite franchise thesis is correct -- that is, continued revenue growth and operating leverage that yields positive net income. Further, we hope to hear a confident reiteration of management commentary from last November signaling mid-2010 as a "turning point for the company":
  • “Furthermore, we are beginning to see signs of economic recovery, and specifically, certain signals for expanded growth in mid-2010 as they relate to the Mediasite product and service offering. Correspondingly, our recent prospecting has resulted in additions to our sales pipeline that, if consummated, would dwarf most of the previous sales made by the company to date. These opportunities have been harvested both domestically and internationally and in different vertical segments of our customer base, most of it occurring in the last few months. Based on the expected timing of these new opportunities, mid-2010 may mark a significant turning point for the company, which could substantially expand operating performance, especially given the cost reductions and operating leverage now in place."
From our perspective, nothing has changed: we anticipate that the franchise is real and growing, and can point to Sonic Foundry's recent Webinar featuring Autodesk (ADSK, $34.72):
One notable slide from the Webcast shows how many persons around the world Autodesk is reaching by Webcasting sessions (on-demand/live/hybrid) from its conference -- 90K on-demand and 20K live (virtual):

While the company uses a third party to create a customer interface for the "University", the engine is Mediasite. As video becomes more pervasive at Autodesk and other companies, we think Mediasite will be there (even acknowledging risks such as technological change and competition). This brings us back to the advice from Peter Lynch and Philip Carret: look around and seek favorable trends.

Of course, the proof is in the pudding: results need to show accelerating adoption and penetration into the mainstream marketplace. Positive earnings and an outlook for continued positive earnings would reset Market expectations for Sonic Foundry and possibly bring new investor interest (note: liquidity and small size remain institutional investment constraints).

Only one sell-side analyst appears to cover the company (we're uncertain which firm) and, per Yahoo! Finance estimates, he/she expects losses of approximately one dollar this year and next. Per our 3/3/10 Sonic Foundry post, we think the signs should be reversed and see potential for one dollar of cash earnings for the year beginning this summer.

Happy investing,

Jeffrey Walkenhorst

Disclosure: long SOFO.
© 2009 Jeffrey Walkenhorst
Please see important Risk Factors & Disclaimer

Sunday, April 25, 2010

eBay Remains Powerhouse - Enjoy the "Victory Lap" While it Lasts

eBay (EBAY) reported 1Q10 financial results last week -- results can be found on eBay's site here and plenty of press articles covered the results. We're not going to recount figures in this post and have limited time, but wanted to go on record now that -- in our view -- the company's current and future earnings power remain impressive. As a result, we expect shares to track moderately growing earnings higher over time. Also, at 15x forward earnings (7% earnings yield), we see some room for further multiple expansion that should juice share performance as earnings increase for this E-commerce stalwart. Shares are currently trading at 13x consensus 2011E earnings.

Briefly on what happened last week: eBay reported an inline 1Q10 and guided slightly lower than Wall Street expectations for 2Q10 while maintaining full-year guidance. Foreign currency movements and higher U.S. taxes (because the company is performing better stateside) are the primary culprits for the lower near-term guidance. In a Market that favors momentum and "beat and raise quarters" (see our Netflix post last Thursday), traders were quick to dump shares of eBay and at least one brokerage house (Deutsche Bank) took a "victory lap" for its pre-existing "sell" rating while another downgraded the stock to sell from hold.

An article published by Business Week/Bloomberg lauded the DB sell call and highlighted that not only had the analyst had the sell call in place since October 2007, but a short-term trading call was made the very the morning of eBay's reporting date.

Wow, congratulations on the 50/50 gamble that eBay would guide lower -- we haven't seen the research, but submit that actually "gaming" results/guidance within a few pennies for such a large company with many moving pieces is extremely difficult and near impossible. We know from experience. Fortunately, it worked out this time for DB. However, what about the up-move from $10 to the mid-$20s over the past year (contrary to the longstanding sell call)?

The shorts can enjoy a brief victory lap, yet we think the celebration will be just that: only a respite. Why? PayPal is a rapidly growing category killer in online payments and the Marketplaces segment -- no matter how you look at it -- is a high margin, high ROIC cash cow, growth or no-growth (although it is growing and we expect more growth from the core E-commerce site as well as Shopping.com, StubHub, classifieds, and advertising). Excess cash will continue to accumulate on the balance sheet, enabling additional growth through reinvestment/acquisitions and returns to shareholders through share repurchases (and perhaps a dividend someday).

We think investors/traders who are negative on eBay are missing the forest through the trees -- a sell rating seems completely oblivious to the company's formidable competitive advantages detailed in our eBay post last August. It's a tremendous franchise that we're happy to own at current levels.

Happy investing,

Jeffrey Walkenhorst

Disclosure: long EBAY.

© 2010 Jeffrey Walkenhorst
Please see important Risk Factors & Disclaimer

Thursday, April 22, 2010

Netflix Again "Goes Crazy" as Shorts are Tormented; More Share Repurchases?

We wrote about shares of Netflix (NFLX, $100) going crazy last January and questioned why persons/firms would short the stock given favorable fundamentals. Well, another short squeeze is tormenting those who were (are) betting on an earnings miss:

Surprisingly, short interest (from Nasdaq.com) remains high at just under 1/3 of float, albeit somewhat lower than last fall:

Our prior questioning of share repurchases in the mid-$40s again appears off the mark, although who knew momentum would carry shares to current levels (51 times trailing earnings, 32 times 2011E earnings) even if results remained solid (as they have)?

Management provided the following "Buyback Update" in Netflix's quarterly commentary:
  • We were aggressive buyers of Netflix shares in the first quarter, as we have been in past quarters. In total, we spent $108 million repurchasing 1.67 million shares at an average cost of $64.51 per share in the first quarter.
  • Cumulatively, we have returned $732 million to shareholders by repurchasing 21.1 millionNetflix Q1 FY 2010 Earnings April 21, 2010 fully diluted shares outstanding at quarter end.
    Netflix shares at an average cost of $34.67 per share. This represents 38% of the 56.2 million
  • We expect to be active again this quarter repurchasing Netflix shares.
With shares now at $100, we wonder if that third bullet still holds?

If we were long the stock, we'd prefer management NOT to repurchase at current levels, particularly given historic NFLX volatility (even acknowledging a powerful subscriber business model). In the past, too many other companies, including Weight Watchers (WTW), confidently and aggressively repurchased shares with "cheap", borrowed funds only to later see significant share price declines. After all, note that "the Market" is often surprised despite so much "smart" institutional money moving the markets. The best way to protect against such surprises is by purchasing (or repurchasing) shares at low multiples of earnings and cash flow.

Happy investing,

Jeffrey Walkenhorst

Disclosure: long WTW.

© 2010 Jeffrey Walkenhorst
Please see important Risk Factors & Disclaimer

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Running an E-Commerce Web Site is Easy, Right? Sure, Anyone Can Do It.

In the second our PetMed Express (PETS) posts last July, we wrote the following:
  • Lastly, what about perceived low barriers to entry on the Internet? We argue that barriers to entry are larger than persons appreciate once an Internet franchise successfully carves out a specific niche and has scale - think Amazon (AMZN), Blue Nile (NILE), eBay (EBAY), 1-800-Flowers (FLWS), Youbet.com (UBET). There were and are plenty of me-too participants in the backyards of each player, but the spoils usually go the the number one player in a given market (on- and off-line). And -- a quick aside -- while many knock eBay's e-commerce segment, the reality is that the business generates gobs of free cash flow with excellent margins and isn't going away any time soon.
In this sense, we were referring mostly to the consumer/brand franchise that develops through years of marketing that drives awareness and repeat business. Yet, there is another aspect of running an E-Commerce company that makes these businesses difficult to replicate: the technology side.

A nice illustration of the technical complexities of running a large, multi-brand Web business comes from a recent IBM Webinar featuring 1-800-Flowers.com. Note that we are pleased that shares of the latter company are garnering more Market attention thanks to President Chris McCann's appearance on 'Undercover Boss'.

The Webinar was the following: A 3-Part Plan For Working Smarter In Retail
  • Join IBM, 1-800-Flowers, and Retail Solutions Online as we discuss how you can Develop Smarter Merchandising and Supply Chains by adapting and responding dynamically, Deliver Smarter Shopping Experiences by collaborating to maximize effectiveness, and Build Smarter Operations by enabling technology to meet business needs quickly. Matt Pillar, Chief Editor at Retail Solutions Online and Integrated Solutions For Retailers will moderate the discussion with Karen Parrish, VP of Industry Solutions for IBM and Nachiket Desai, VP of Enterprise Architecture and Business Intelligence at 1-800-Flowers.com
Here are a few slides from the 1-800-Flowers.com portion of the presentation (second half) -

Building an "Agile" platform:

Many components:

Putting it all together:

Conclusion: there is more than meets the eye in running an E-Commerce business.
Those that do it well (e.g. effectively scale while planning for the future) create a major barrier to entry that makes possible (and further strengthens) a durable consumer franchise. For this reason, we continue to like 1-800-Flowers.com and Bidz.com (BIDZ). In addition, we retain our long positions in eBay (EBAY) and PetMed Express although shares of these companies are no longer the bargains they were in 2009. Finally, we should acknowledge that owning/operating a strong Web business is also a critical part of traditional, off-line retailers. In this case, companies that do both well likely find themselves in strong competitive positions.

Happy investing,

Jeffrey Walkenhorst

Disclosure: long FLWS, EBAY, UBET, PETS, BIDZ.

© 2010 Jeffrey Walkenhorst
Please see important Risk Factors & Disclaimer

Saturday, April 17, 2010

Get the Stock Price Up! But, Wait - Managing for Shareholder Value Trumps Price

We previously mentioned Michael Mauboussin in our November post, Mediasite Franchise Value Remains Unrecognized by Market. Mr. Mauboussin is the Chief Investment Strategist of Legg Mason Capital Management and has authored a number of insightful books/articles through the years. He, as well as Bill Miller of Legg Mason, encourage a multidisciplinary approach to investing that is logical and works (e.g. be contrarian - look beyond main street and your comfort zone to find ideas).

We thought we'd briefly relay an important message from one of his articles published last August in the Financial Times regarding senior executives managing a business for stock price versus managing for shareholder value - Talking head: Managing for shareholder value is still key. FT log in is required (free), but here are some highlights directly from the article:
  • The core of the problem is what managing for shareholder value means. Messrs Welch, Martin and others imply it is about maximising the short-term stock price. Companies that manage for shareholder value, the thinking goes, do whatever it takes to engineer an ever-higher market price. That is a profound misunderstanding.
  • Executives create shareholder value when they allocate capital so as to maximise the present value of long-term free cash flows. These decisions include investments in capital spending, mergers and acquisitions and share repurchases. The premise is that if a company builds value, the stock price will eventually reflect that value. Executives adhering to shareholder value principles manage for value, not price.
  • In an attempt to increase their company’s stock price executives typically focus on three levers; earnings per share management, equity-based compensation, and investor communications. Take EPS management. When surveyed, a vast majority of executives cite EPS as the most important measure they report. But the link between EPS and value is at best tenuous, and there is a wide range of corporate decisions that can increase earnings but decrease value.
We strive to seek ownership positions in companies where senior executives work for us -- the owners -- always managing for shareholder value over the long-term. We believe this is the case in our small-cap holdings, Sonic Foundry (SOFO) and 1-800-Flowers.com (FLWS), to our large-cap holdings, eBay (EBAY) and Yahoo! (YHOO).

Happy investing,

Jeffrey Walkenhorst

Disclosure: long SOFO, FLWS, EBAY, YHOO.

© 2010 Jeffrey Walkenhorst
Please see important Risk Factors & Disclaimer

Thursday, April 15, 2010

What's going on in the Economy - Look at Areas of Transportation/Shipping Sector

One of these weeks, we'll update our "How's the Economy Doing" series, but for now, we'll try to share various data points or news items that tell the story. Some headlines from The Journal of Commerce yesterday (note: easy Y/Y comps helping):

Truckload Spot Prices Rocket in March
Truckload spot market freight volume reached pre-recession levels in March, climbing 259 percent from a year ago and 14 percent from March 2008, according to TransCore's North American Freight Index. The index broke 1,000 for the first time since June 2008.
Domestic Intermodal Primed for Growth
Domestic intermodal rail weathered the economic recession better than most transportation modes, and the industry appears now to be on the verge of experiencing unprecedented growth.
CSX Rates to Rise 4 to 5 Percent in 2010
CSX Transportation is sticking with its earlier guidance to see core pricing gains of 4 to 5 percent during 2010 although its first-quarter price gains were at the top of that range.
Frankfurt Cargo Soars to Record in March
Frankfurt airport handled more than 200,000 metric tons of freight in a month for the first time in March after traffic at Europe's biggest air cargo hub soared 37.4 per cent from a year ago.

More positive news for our container shipping companies Seaspan (SSW) and Global Ship Lease (GSL), as well as our aircraft leasing business, Babcock and Brown Air Limited (FLY), all of which we believe remain undervalued relative to reasonable fair values.

Happy investing,

Jeffrey Walkenhorst

Disclosure: long SSW, GSL, FLY.

© 2010 Jeffrey Walkenhorst
Please see important Risk Factors & Disclaimer

Sunday, April 11, 2010

1-800-Flowers.com: 'Undercover Boss' Should Drive Awareness and Business

In case you haven't heard, Chris McCann, President of 1-800-Flowers.com (FLWS) is the executive featured on CBS's 'Undercover Boss' tonight.

A WSJ article from Friday points out that most companies featured on the program subsequently see higher share prices and/or higher Web site traffic:
We're not entirely surprised as increased media exposure for any business is usually a good thing (unless it's a product recall or some other negative news), not to mention that momentum oriented traders might latch onto news of the program to bid shares higher.

The CBS show enables consumer facing companies such as 1-800-Flowers.com to connect with customers and/or potential customers. The goal is to keep building the business and drive repeat business -- recall commentary from the company's last report:
  • "During the fiscal second quarter, the Company attracted 656,000 new customers, of whom 78 percent, or 512,000, came to the Company through its online channels. Approximately 1.7 million customers placed orders during the quarter, of which 60 percent were repeat customers. This reflects the Company's ongoing focus on deepening the relationship with its existing customers as their trusted gift provider for all of their celebratory occasions.
The 60% repeat business is one of the key reasons we like 1-800-Flowers.com and provides evidence of an established franchise.

The WSJ article notes that even before airing tonight's program, Chris McCann's "company's stock already has notched some heady gains." It is true that shares moved from the low 2s to the high 2s, yet shares continue to trade near a ten-year low despite being a much larger and diverse business than ever before:

By much larger and diverse, we mean the following (from recent presentation):

The "flowers" segment is less than 60% of total revenue and we believe certain units (chocolate) actually saw stable to slight growth revenue over the past year. These are good businesses with growth potential and significant operating leverage as the economy slowly recovers.

For heady gains, please see the 3-5x gains of many other mainstream retail companies over the past year: Whole Foods (WFMI), Starbucks (SBUX), Limited Brands (LTD), Williams-Sonoma (WSM) to name a few. Per our prior posts - where do flowers come from and,
Many Funds Simply Can't Buy FLWS Right Now; But, We Can Because We Can Wait, we've been increasing our exposure to the company.

We're not in it for a move from $2 to $3, but rather multiples of our average purchase price. A 10% current free cash flow yield implies a fair value of almost $5 today and, on a normalized earnings power basis, shares could garner more than $8.

Happy investing,

Jeffrey Walkenhorst

Disclosure: long FLWS.

© 2010 Jeffrey Walkenhorst
Please see important Risk Factors & Disclaimer

Thursday, April 8, 2010

Retail and Manufacturing Profits Recovering Smartly - Surpised?

Retailers posted strong same-store-sales ("SSS") results versus March of 2009 when the world was essentially stopped. Please see this AP article for more: Shoppers hand retailers a basket of Easter cash. We're not too surprised by the results, which benefit from easy Y/Y comparisons and are consistent with earlier signs of strength shared in our post on increased demand for cruises and our earlier commentary on retail/railroads.

For a view of historic 2005-2009 quarterly after tax profits for "large retailers", let's turn to charts provided by the U.S. Census Bureau:
And, "large manufacturers":
Both charts reveal solid profit recoveries and, in our view, confirm the following: despite overarching economic concerns about government debt, higher taxes, retirement savings, and [you name the risk], Americans simply can't help but spend money. Our consumer-oriented culture is ingrained and, increasingly, spreading to all corners of the world.

This trend largely explains our interest in still attractively priced container shipping companies Seaspan (SSW) and Global Ship Lease (GSL). Here's another headline from The Journal of Commerce that supports shipping and economic recovery (e.g. illustrated by the retail figures):
  • Freight Shipping Reaches 18-Month High
  • Freight shipping in the United States shot up to its highest level in nearly a year-and-a-half in March, signaling a surge in international shipping had reached U.S. networks, according to a key barometer of the domestic economy released Monday.
On the direct retail side, we recently added to our 1-800-Flowers.com and Bidz.com positions. Both companies have established franchises but remain out of favor as the Market worries about the aforementioned risks. Still, somehow, most retailers appear to climbing out of the abyss just fine, with significantly improved valuations to boot. We don't expect 1-800-Flowers.com's 15-20% free cash flow yield to current buyers to last forever.

Finally, we saw the following headline the other week:
You think? Of course, we suppose the analyst is taking a stand against those nagging, worrisome risk factors. Meanwhile, shares of most hotel companies are already up 3, 4, 5x from the lows of one year ago. What does this analyst like? Everything!
  • "Attie maintained his sector overweight position and "Buy" ratings on Marriott International Inc., Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc., Hyatt Hotels Corp., LaSalle Hotel Properties and Choice Hotels International Inc."
We can't comment on all of these companies, yet we can say that his "buy everything" call is not differentiating and seemingly dismissive of valuation discipline. Risky, in our view, and not our style.

Happy investing,

Jeffrey Walkenhorst

Disclosure: long SSW, GSL, BIDZ, FLWS.

© 2010 Jeffrey Walkenhorst
Please see important Risk Factors & Disclaimer

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Shipping: Container History from 1985 and Outlook

We mentioned positive container shipping commentary from TAL International Group, Inc. (TAL) in late February. We're tracking the company because of our interest in container shipping companies Seaspan (SSW) and Global Ship Lease (GSL). From TAL's March investor presentation, we find the following slides -

Historical growth of container market dating to 1985 as well as a 2010-12 outlook:

This isn't "new" news and the container companies regularly mention the 10% historical CAGR of container volumes. Still, we share the slide to visually relay the prior growth trajectory. Despite negative/slow near-term expectations, we don't think it's a stretch expect a resumption of growth in the future, albeit perhaps more modest.

The benefit for TAL shareholders is that the supply/demand situation is significantly different than that of the container industry, thanks to shorter manufacturing lead times. Per the below slide, 2009 production was limited:

We've no position in TAL (*fantastic recovery in equity value this year), but are content with our SSW/GSL exposure despite a continued barrage of mixed industry headlines, including today's lead headline from The Journal of Commerce: Container Ship Deliveries Set to Soar. A few points from the article:
  • Shipyards to deliver combined capacity of 430,000 TEUs in three months
  • In April alone deliveries are set to reach 150,000 TEUs, the highest monthly level recorded since mid-2008.
  • “The new vessel deliveries are expected to contribute to a net fleet growth of 9.6 percent in 2010 after taking into account expected scrapping and slippage,” Alphaliner said.
  • The increased deliveries will be absorbed by the recovery in global demand and the start of the summer peak shipping season as well as slow steaming.
  • The main driver for demand in the second quarter was the launch of several new loops which absorbed new ships as well as idle tonnage which has now fallen below 9 percent of the world fleet, Alphaliner said.
Per our prior posts, we think the supply/demand situation will gradually normalize, helping our Seaspan and Global Ship Lease (*banking on CMA CGM solvency for latter - please see this JoC story for latest). On this point, please see this Lloyd's headline/story today: Container trade growth expected to hit 10% this year -
  • Asian demand to act as a catalyst as Clarksons and Alphaliner amend their 2010 outlook
  • GLOBAL container volumes are expected to recover significantly from last year’s collapse as economic conditions stabilise, with stronger demand contributing to a considerable decline in the size of the unemployed fleet.
  • Clarksons has revised its forecast for 2010 and now expects the container trades to expand by 7.5% this year....
For those interested in more shipping commentary/slide decks (from all sectors of shipping, including dry bulk), we recommend visiting Capital Link's Web site to see presentations from the firm's recent NYC conference.

Happy investing,

Jeffrey Walkenhorst

Disclosure: long SSW, GSL.

© 2010 Jeffrey Walkenhorst
Please see important Risk Factors & Disclaimer

Saturday, April 3, 2010

Air Traffic: 2009 versus 2008 - LatAm Stable and Middle East Higher = Pockets of Growth Through Crisis

We usually include air traffic data as part of our "How's the Economy Doing" series (we're behind with this update -- please stay tuned), but wanted to briefly share 2009/2008 annual (and December) data for general interest. More recent air traffic data is now available -- revealing impressive Y/Y improvements (on easy Y/Y comparisons) in February -- yet we were quite surprised the other month to see stable 2009 results for Latin America and double digit percentage growth for the Middle East ("RPK") -- per IATA, reported in January (click to enlarge):

Here is helpful information to interpret the table:
  • IATA (International Air Transport Association) represents some 230 airlines comprising 93% of scheduled international air traffic.
  • Explanation of measurement terms:
  • RPK: Revenue Passenger Kilometers measures actual passenger traffic
  • ASK: Available Seat Kilometers measures available passenger capacity
  • PLF: Passenger Load Factor is % of ASKs used. In comparison of 2009 to 2008, PLF indicates point differential between the periods compared
  • FTK: Freight Tonne Kilometers measures actual freight traffic
  • AFTK: Available Freight Tonne Kilometers measures available total freight capacity
  • FLF: Freight Load Factor is % of AFTKs used
  • IATA statistics cover international scheduled air traffic; domestic traffic is not included.
  • All figures are provisional and represent total reporting at time of publication plus estimates for missing data. Historic figures may be revised.
  • International passenger traffic market shares by region in terms of RPK are: Europe 34.7%, Asia-Pacific 29.8%, North America 17.8%, Middle East 11.5%, Latin America 4.5%, Africa 1.8%
  • International freight traffic market shares by region in terms of FTK are: Asia-Pacific 44.8%, Europe 25.3%, North America 16.6%, Middle East 10.2%, Latin America 2.2%, Africa 1.0%
Our point is similar to what we've relayed in the past: despite legitimate concerns, things aren't as bad as many persons feared and continue to fear (although some fear seems to be dissipating).

Attractively priced opportunities still remain for patient, diligent investors, including our 1-800-Flowers.com (FLWS). Also, in addition to our container shipping companies Seaspan (SSW) and Global Ship Lease (GSL), we dipped our toe into aircraft leasing in recent months by purchasing shares of Babcock and Brown Air Limited (FLY). While we still prefer asset light companies, we see Babcock and Brown as a stable, under-priced business with shareholder friendly management. On this latter point, please note Babcock and Brown's repurchase/other news from yesterday and actions over course of 2008-09.

Thus, we now hold larger exposure to cash generating pieces of the world's global transportation infrastructure (asset heavy ships and aircraft). By purchasing these companies at very low multiples of free cash flow, we sleep well with our exposure.

Happy investing,

Jeffrey Walkenhorst

Disclosure: long SSW, GSL, FLWS, FLY.

© 2010 Jeffrey Walkenhorst
Please see important Risk Factors & Disclaimer

Thursday, April 1, 2010

1-800-Flowers.com (FLWS) Fodder - Where Do They Come From?

We previously shared our positive view on 1-800-Flowers.com (FLWS). Two months back we came across the below Youtube video featuring CEO Jim McCann on "Where Do 1-800-Flowers.com Flowers Come from?"

Here are some additional insights we gleaned from the company:
  • Approximately 75% of 1-800-Flowers.com floral gifts are fulfilled by independent BloomNet florists, which is the primary floral gift focus area (*we note that floral segment gifts represents just over one half of the company's total revenue).
  • The farm in the video is both a partner in 1-800-Flowers.com's direct ship business as well as a wholesaler of flowers for BloomNet florists, as are most flower farms in the U.S. and South America.
Happily, we were able to acquire more shares of the company around, and even below, $2.00 in February. We're looking to add more shares to our position with patient capital.

Jeffrey Walkenhorst

Disclosure: long FLWS.
© 2010 Jeffrey Walkenhorst
Please see important Risk Factors & Disclaimer