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Monday, November 16, 2009

More on Retail Sales - Sky Is Not Falling and Stability is Positive for Global Psyche

Briefly following up on yesterday's post with respect to retail sales -- the U.S. Census Bureau reported "October 2009 Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services" this morning (link here). A Bloomberg article summarizes salient points:
  • October retail sales in the U.S. rebounded more than anticipated as demand for autos climbed, easing concern households will curtail spending after government incentives ended.
  • [A] 1.4% increase followed a [downward revised] 2.3% drop in the prior month that was much larger than previously estimated [originally forecast at down 1.5%], making last month’s gain less impressive, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Purchases excluding autos rose less than forecast.
  • Retail sales were projected to rise 0.9% ... according to the median estimate of 66 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Forecasts ranged from gains of 0.4 percent to 1.8 percent.
  • Excluding automobiles, sales increased 0.2% after a 0.4% gain in September. They were forecast to increase 0.4%, according to the survey median.
Thus, while the downward revision to September results dampens the October M/M upswing, the positive/stable figures support data in our prior post sourced from the WSJ. Another indication that the sky isn't falling. We believe signs of stability are important for investor and consumer psychology.

Happy investing,

Jeffrey Walkenhorst

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© 2009 Jeffrey Walkenhorst
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